DRAFT

Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Wednesday, October 17, 2018
4:00pm to 5:00pm
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Baxter B125
Failures in Contingent Reasoning: The Role of Uncertainty
Emanuel Vespa, Assistant Professor of Economics, UC Santa Barbara,

Contingent reasoning is ubiquitous and difficult. We provide a new hypothesis -the Power of Certainty- to decompose difficulties with contingent reasoning. When moving from an environment with one state of known value to one where the value of the state is uncertain with a probability distribution over possible values, two changes occur. First, the number of values to consider increases. Second, having more than one value introduces uncertainty. We propose that this lack of certainty, the loss of the Power of Certainty, impedes payoff maximization and show that it accounts for a substantial portion of difficulties with contingent reasoning.

For more information, please contact Sabrina Hameister by phone at 626-395-4228 or by email at sabrina@hss.caltech.edu.