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Thursday, March 1st, 2018
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Cognitive Empathy in Conflict Situations
Christoph Kuzmics, Professor of Microeconomics, Department of Economics, University of Graz; Visiting Associate in Economics, Caltech,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Causal Inference through the Method of Direct Estimation
Marc Ratkovic, Assistant Professor, Department of Politics, Princeton University,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Skewness, Tax Progression, and Demand for Redistribution: Evidence from the UK
Kirill Pogorelskiy, Visiting Associate in Economics, Caltech,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Predicting and Understanding Initial Play
Drew Fudenberg, Paul A. Samuelson Professor of Economics, MIT,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Inference in Instrumental Variables Analysis with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects
Kirill Evdokimov, Assistant Professor, Princeton University,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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POSTPONED - Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

This talk has been rescheduled to Wednesday, January 24, 2018.
Kirill Evdokimov, Assistant Professor, Princeton University,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Unrealistic Expectations and Misguided Learning
Philipp Strack, Assistant Professor, UC Berkeley,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

What Role Does Angel Finance Play in the Early-stage Capital Market?
Jun Chen, Graduate Student, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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CANCELLED | Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

This talk has been cancelled.
Marcelo Fernandez, Graduate Student, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Multinomial logit processes and preference discovery: inside and outside the black box
Fabio Maccheroni, Full Professor, Department of Decision Sciences, Bocconi University,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Time-varying Impact of Investor Sentiment
Pengfei Sui, Graduate Student, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Subjective Utilitarianism: Individual decisions in a social context
Shiri Alon, Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Bar Ilan University in Israel,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Learning about The Influence of Spatial and Temporal Proximity using Regression Trees
Ines Levin, Assistant Professor, UC Irvine,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Minimal Subjective State Spaces
Igor Kopylov, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, UC Irvine,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Communication in Context: Interpreting Promises in an Experiment on Competition and Trust
Alessandra Casella, Professor of Economics and Political Science, Columbia University,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Searching for Policy Reforms
Avidit Acharya, Assistant Professor, Stanford University,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Bayesian Indirect Inference and the ABC of GMM
Han Hong, Professor, Department of Economics, Stanford University,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Wealth Effects and Information Acquisition
John Rehbeck, Assistant Professor of Economics, Ohio State University,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Conditional equilibria of multi-stage games with infinite sets of signals and actions
Roger Myerson, Glen A. Lloyd Distinguished Service Professor of Economics, University of Chicago; Moore Distinguished Scholar, Caltech,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Nonparametric Analysis of Finite Mixtures
Yuichi Kitamura, Professor of Economics, Yale University,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Electoral Competition and Corruption: Theory and Evidence from India
Amrita Dhillon, Professor of Political Economy, King’s College London,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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CANCELLED | Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

This talk has been cancelled.
Phil Haile, Ford Foundation Professor of Economics, Yale University,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

How Much Does Your Boss Make? The Incentive Effects of Horizontal and Vertical Inequality
Ricardo Perez-Truglia, Assistant Professor, Anderson School of Management, UCLA,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Electoral Competition with Rationally Inattentive Voters
Filip Matejka, Associate Professor with Tenure, CERGE-EI; Research Affiliate, Center for Economic and Policy Research,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

The Cushioning Benefits of Biased Beliefs
Lawrence Jin, Assistant Professor of Finance, Caltech,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Partial effects for binary outcome models with unobserved heterogeneity
Lucas Nunez, Graduate Student, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Career Concerns and the Dynamics of Electoral Accountability
Gabriel Lopez-Moctezuma, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Caltech,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Price-setting by Committee: Evidence from Medicare
David Chan, Assistant Professor of Medicine, Stanford School of Medicine,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

The Evolution of the Private Equity Market and the Decline in IPOs
Michael Ewens, Associate Professor of Finance and Entrepreneurship, Caltech,
12:00pm 1:00pm
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Social Sciences Brown Bag Seminar

Can Access to Capital Explain the Entrepreneurship Gender Gap?
Michael Ewens, Associate Professor of Finance and Entrepreneurship, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech,
12:00pm 1:00pm
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CANCELLED | Social Sciences Brown Bag Seminar

This talk has been cancelled.
Marina Agranov, Assistant Professor of Economics, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Seminar in Political Economy

Norms in Bargaining: Evidence from Government Formation in Spain
Thomas Fujiwara, Assistant Professor of Economics, Princeton University,
12:00pm 1:00pm
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Social Sciences Brown Bag Seminar

Preference Aggregation and Public Risk
Luciano Pomatto, Assistant Professor of Economics, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech,
12:00pm 1:00pm
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Social Sciences Brown Bag Seminar

Fear
Ralph Adolphs, Bren Professor of Psychology and Neuroscience and Professor of Biology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Seminar in Political Economy

Experimenting with Legitimacy: How Leaders' Choices about Group Profiling and Error Reduction Affect Compliance
Greg Huber, Professor of Political Science, Yale University,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Seminar in Political Economy

Social Mobility and Stability of Democracy: Re-Evaluating De Tocqueville
Konstantin Sonin, John Dewey Distinguished Service Professor, University of Chicago,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Seminar in Political Economy

A Model of Focusing in Political Choice
Salvatore Nunnari, Assistant Professor in Economics, Bocconi University; Visiting Associate in Economics, Caltech,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Seminar in Political Economy

Policy Diffusion and Crafted Political Talk
Fred Boehmke, Director of Graduate Studies, University of Iowa,
12:00pm 1:00pm
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Social Sciences Brown Bag Seminar

Optimal Schedules for Security Games
Omer Tamuz, Assistant Professor of Economics and Mathematics, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech,
12:00pm 1:00pm
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Social Sciences Brown Bag Seminar

Bayesian Estimation of the Heuristic Switching Model
Mikhail Anufriev, Associate Professor, Economics Discipline Group, University of Technology, Sydney,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Seminar in Political Economy

Polarization and Pandering in Common-value Elections
Joseph McMurray, Assistant Professor of Economics, Brigham Young University ,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Seminar in Political Economy

The End of the Modern Corporation: Deregulation and Ownership of Electric Utilities
Howard Rosenthal, Professor of Politics, New York University,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Seminar in Political Economy

Discovery of Treatments from Text Corpora
Justin Grimmer, Associate Professor of Political Science, Stanford University,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Seminar in Political Economy

The Marginal Voter's Curse
Aniol Llorente-Saguer, Reader of Economics, Queen Mary University of London,
12:00pm 1:00pm
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Social Sciences Brown Bag Seminar

Testable Forecasts
Luciano Pomatto, Assistant Professor of Economics, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Seminar in Political Economy

Local Agency Costs of Political Centralization
Roger Myerson, Glen A. Lloyd Distinguished Service Professor of Economics, University of Chicago; Visiting Associate in Economics, Caltech,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Seminar in Political Economy

Centralization versus separation of regulatory institutions
Dana Foarta, Assistant Professor of Political Economy, Stanford Graduate School of Business,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Seminar in Political Economy

The Politics of Sovereign Default under Financial Integration
Marina Azzimonti, Associate Professor, Stony Brook University,
12:00pm 1:00pm
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Social Sciences Brown Bag Seminar

Legislative Bargaining without Replacement: Theory and Experimental Evidence
Duk Gyoo Kim, Postdoctoral Scholar in Economics, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech,
12:00pm 1:00pm
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Social Sciences Brown Bag Seminar

Equilibrium Selection in Stable Matching Mechanisms: Experimental Evidence
Ahrash Dianat, Postdoctoral Scholar in Economics at the Social Science Experimental Laboratory (SSEL), Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Seminar in Political Economy

How the Chinese Government Fabricates Social Media Posts for Strategic Distraction, Not Engaged Argument
Molly Roberts, Assistant Professor of Political Science, UC San Diego,
12:00pm 1:00pm
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Social Sciences Brown Bag Seminar

The Lobbyist's Dilemma: Gatekeeping and the Profit Motive
Alex Hirsch, Associate Professor of Political Science, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Seminar in Political Economy

Formal Behavioralism
Daniel Diermeier, Dean of the Harris School of Public Policy and Emmett Dedmon Professor of Public Administration, University of Chicago,
12:00pm 1:00pm
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Social Sciences Brown Bag Seminar

Candidate Entry and Political Polarization: Theory and Experiments
Jens Grosser, Visiting Associate in Political Science, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Seminar in Political Economy

Agency Problems in Campaign Finance
Gregory Martin, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Emory University,
12:00pm 1:00pm
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Social Sciences Brown Bag Seminar

Optimal Dynamic Matching
Leeat Yariv, Professor of Economics, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Seminar in Political Economy

The Hot Hand Fallacy Fallacy
Joshua Miller, Assistant Professor, Department of Decision Sciences, Bocconi University,
12:00pm 1:00pm
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Social Sciences Brown Bag Seminar

Cost of Experimentation and the Evolution of Venture Capital
Michael Ewens, Associate Professor of Finance and Entrepreneurship, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Seminar in Political Economy

Helping Friends or Influencing Foes: Electoral and Policy Effects of Campaign Finance Contributions
Keith Schnakenberg, Assistant Professor of Public Policy, Martin School of Public Policy and Administration, University of Kentucky,
12:00pm 1:00pm
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Social Sciences Brown Bag Seminar

Subset Portfolios for Robust Asset Allocation
Ben Gillen, Assistant Professor of Economics, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech,
12:00pm 1:00pm
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Social Sciences Brown Bag Seminar

Results of Pure Replication of Economics Lab Experiments and their Peer-Predictability
Colin Camerer, Robert Kirby Professor of Behavioral Economics, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech,
12:00pm 1:00pm
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Social Sciences Brown Bag Seminar

Average Luce Model
Kota Saito, Assistant Professor of Economics, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech,
12:00pm 1:00pm
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Social Sciences Brown Bag Seminar

Persistence of Power: Dynamic Multilateral Bargaining
Marina Agranov, Assistant Professor of Economics, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Seminar in Political Economy

Democracy for Polarized Groups: The Tale of Blotto's Lieutenants
Alessandra Casella, Professor of Economics, Columbia University,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Seminar in Political Economy

Bureaucratic Agency Problems and Legislative Oversight
Sean Gailmard, Professor, Travers Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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CANCELLED || Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Seminar in Political Economy

The Impression of Influence
Justin Grimmer, Associate Professor of Political Science, Stanford University,
12:00pm 1:00pm
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Social Sciences Brown Bag Seminar

The speed of social learning
Omer Tamuz, Assistant Professor of Economics, Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Seminar in Political Economy

Making Corruption Harder: Asymmetric Information, Collusion, and Crime
Juan Ortner, Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Boston University ,
12:00pm 1:00pm
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Social Sciences Brown Bag Seminar

Extrapolation and Bubbles
Lawrence Jin, Assistant Professor of Finance, Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech,
4:00pm 5:00pm
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Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Seminar in Political Economy

Electoral Imbalance and its Consequences
Carlo Prato, Assistant Professor, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University,
12:00pm 1:00pm
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Social Sciences Brown Bag Seminar

Experimenting with Measurement Error: Techniques and Applications from the Caltech Cohort Study
Ben Gillen, Assistant Professor of Economics, HSS, Caltech,
12:00pm 1:00pm
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UPDATED | Social Sciences Brown Bag Seminar

Fuzzy Forests: Variable selection among correlated predictors when p >> n
Christina Ramirez, Visiting Associate in Economics, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech,
12:00pm 1:00pm
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Social Sciences Brown Bag Seminar

Agnostic Tests of Stochastic Discount Factor Theory
Richard Roll, Linde Institute Professor of Finance, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech ,
12:00pm 1:00pm
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CANCELLED | Social Sciences Brown Bag Seminar

Alex Hirsch, Associate Professor of Political Science, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech,
12:00pm 1:00pm
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Social Sciences Brown Bag Seminar

Social investments, informal risk sharing and inequality
Matthew Elliott, Assistant Professor of Economics, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Caltech ,