DRAFT

Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Wednesday, October 12, 2022
4:00pm to 5:00pm
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Baxter Lecture Hall
Distributions of Posterior Quantiles and Economic Applications
Kai Hao Yang, Assistant Professor of Economics, Yale School of Management.,

Abstract: We characterize the distributions of posterior quantiles under a given prior. Unlike the distributions of posterior means, which are known to be mean-preserving contractions of the prior, the distributions of posterior quantiles coincide with a first-order stochastic dominance interval bounded by an upper and a lower truncation of the prior. We apply this characterization to several environments, ranging across political economy, Bayesian persuasion, industrial organization, econometrics, finance, and accounting.

For more information, please contact Barbara Estrada by phone at 626-395-4083 or by email at bestrada@hss.caltech.edu.