DRAFT

Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Wednesday, May 26, 2021
12:00pm to 1:00pm
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Online Event
The Wisdom of the Crowd and Higher-Order Beliefs
Mallesh Pai, Assistant Professor of Economics, Rice University,

Abstract: The classic wisdom-of-the-crowd problem asks how a principal can "aggregate" information about the unknown state of the world from agents without understanding the information structure among them. We propose a new simple procedure "{population mean based aggregation}" to achieve this goal. It only requires eliciting agents' beliefs about the state, and also eliciting some agents' expectations of the average belief in the population. We show that this procedure fully aggregates information: in an infinite population, it always infers the true state of the world. The procedure can accommodate correlation in agents' information, misspecified beliefs, any finite number of possible states of the world, and only requires very weak assumptions on the information structure.

Written with Yi-Chun Chen and Manuel Mueller-Frank.

How to view the seminar:
Sign up for a free twitch.tv account, and tune in on Wednesdays at noon pacific time on twitch.tv/caltechecontheory. You will be able to ask questions on the twitch chat.

For more information, please contact Letty Diaz by email at letty.diaz@caltech.edu.