Two Information Aggregation Mechanisms for Predicting the Opening Weekend Box Office Revenues of Films: Box Office Prophecy and Guess of Guesses
Field tests were conducted on two new Information Aggregation Mechanism (IAM) designs. The mechanisms were designed to collect information held as intuitions about opening weekend box office revenues for movies in Australia. The principles on which the mechanisms operate and their capacity to collect information are explored. A pari-mutuel mechanism produces a predicted probability distribution over box office amounts that is, with the exception of very small films, indistinguishable from the actual revenues. The second mechanism is based on guessing the guesses of others and, applied under conditions incentives for accuracy are unavailable, still performs well against data.